Opposition’s ‘chemistry’ or BJP’s arithmetic for 130 seats, know who is ahead in the race?

BJP is working on a strategy to destroy opposition unity in Bihar, UP and Jharkhand itself. BJP has prepared 2 plans to clean sweep 134 seats in all the three states. Firstly, alliance with small parties instead of big parties and secondly preparation to field strong leaders.

On behalf of the BJP high command, continuous talks are being held with small parties of Bihar and UP. According to the discussion, two small parties of Bihar and UP have also been involved in this exercise. BJP wants to contest elections by bringing together 10 small parties from 3 states of North India.

This strategy of BJP is also being seen as an extension of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In the 2019 elections, the BJP alliance won 115 out of 134 seats. However, JDU, which won 16 seats, is now out of the alliance.

Bihar: Who is ready, who is preparing to bring along?

There is a strong alliance of JDU, RJD, Congress and Left Front in 2024 against BJP in Bihar. To break this cycle, BJP is working on the formula of 2014. In 2014, BJP had formed an alliance with the party of Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha.

In 2014, NDA had won 31 seats in Bihar. In 2019, BJP contested elections in alliance with JDU and LJP and broke all old records and won 39 seats, but in 2022 JDU broke the alliance with BJP.

Before entering the battle of 2024, BJP is trying to help Chirag Paswan, Pashupati Paras, Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahni in Bihar. Till now Chirag, Paras, Kushwaha have been taken care of. Manjhi can also join NDA soon.

After this, the party will try to bring Mukesh Sahni along. Sahni has been a part of the NDA in the past as well, but was shown the way out after the UP elections.

At present, the vote percentage of the 6 parties which have a strong alliance against the BJP in Bihar is about 50 percent. In this comparison, BJP’s vote percentage is around 25. In such a situation, BJP is trying to make the fight one-on-one by involving smaller parties.

In Bihar, if BJP succeeds in helping all these parties, then its vote can increase by 9 percent. Also, the fight on 15 seats will become easier.

In UP, along with Purvanchal, the challenge of practicing the West

There is a saying in political circles – the way to Delhi goes through UP only. The BJP is trying to appear strong in UP amidst the opposition unity. BJP is helping small parties for this. Some of these parties are effective in Purvanchal, and some in the west.

In 2014, BJP won a record 73 seats in Uttar Pradesh in alliance with Apna Dal. In 2019, the graph of BJP went down and NDA won 64 seats. This time also BJP is working on the target of 70 plus.

In 2019, BJP lost the elections on 7 seats in West UP. In the 2022 elections, the SP alliance defeated the BJP in Purvanchal. Small parties played an important role in both the elections.

This time BJP wants to keep Apna Dal (Sonelal), Nishad Party and Suheldev Samaj Party together in Purvanchal and Rashtriya Lok Dal in West. Apna Dal and Nishad Party are currently in NDA, while talks are on with Subhaspa.

If RLD leaves the side of SP, then BJP can put strings on it. However, there is little hope for this.

With the alliance with Subhashpa, it will be easier for BJP to contest elections on Ambedkar Nagar, Ghazipur, Ghoshi, Mau and Ballia seats. Here, if Om Prakash Rajbhar is successful in getting votes transferred, then the fight can be one-sided.

On the other hand, Nishad Party has influence in Gorakhpur, Deoria and Santakbirnagar. Apna Dal can play an important role in changing the game of seats like Mirzapur, Pratapgarh, Azamgarh, Rampur and Kaushambi.

Jharkhand: The path here is the most difficult, Marandi-Mahto is the only support

In the 2019 elections, the BJP alliance had won 12 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand, but the party had to face a crushing defeat in the assembly elections held six months later. Chief Minister Raghubar Das himself lost the election.

BJP does not have any local face in Jharkhand since then. Jharkhand Vikas Morcha merged with BJP after 2019 elections. Babulal Marandi was also made the leader of the legislative party by the party, but due to technical reasons, the matter is in the speaker’s court.

This time BJP is also working on another strategy to win Jharkhand apart from the alliance. Firstly, it will field its 3 former chief ministers. These include the names of Raghubar Das, Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda. It is being seen as a strategy to make the fight easier by making the seat a VIP.

Why the strategy of keeping small parties together, 2 reasons…
Low demand for seat, specializes in shifting votes- In the Lok Sabha elections, the demand for seats of small parties is less. Sometimes even without taking a seat, small parties give support with the help of other equations. In 2019, RPI supported BJP in Maharashtra by taking Rajya Sabha seat.

Along with the low demand for seats, these parties have the ability to shift votes. This party easily shifts its vote to the national party by making it a quick issue in elections, due to which the equation of victory becomes in its favor.

Helpful in breaking the anti-OBC imageThe major issue of opposition unity is caste census, due to which BJP’s anti-OBC image is being created. To break it, the party is taking smaller parties along. Upendra Kushwaha, Mukesh Sahni, Om Prakash Rajbhar and Sanjay Nishad have formed teams to help their respective societies.

With the help of these leaders, BJP is trying to blunt the atmosphere being created against the caste census. If this plan is successful, then BJP can get a big advantage in these states.

Now the story of those parties, through which talks can be made on alliance…

1. LJP (R) and RLJP- Dalit leader of Bihar Ram Vilas Paswan formed LJP. Paswan in 2014 Narendra Modi came with. Everything was fine in BJP and LJP till 2020 when Paswan was there, but in 2021 Chirag’s uncle spoiled the game.

Pashupati Paras removed Chirag from the post of leader and president along with 5 MPs, after which LJP’s matter went to the Election Commission. Pashupati Paras faction currently has 5 MPs and Paras himself is a minister in the cabinet.

BJP is also working for Chirag, but the demand for Chirag is more this time. It is believed that therefore the agreement between BJP and Chirag has not been announced yet.

2. RLJD and we- Both the parties were formed after breaking away from Nitish Kumar’s JDU. Recently both have decided to break away from the Grand Alliance. We and RLJD may soon announce to join NDA.

There is talk of giving 3 seats to RLJD and 1 seat to us. However, the final announcement on the alliance and seat has not been made yet.

3. VIP and Subhaspa- Suheldev Samaj Party is a regional party of Uttar Pradesh, while VIP is of Bihar. Both the parties do politics of backward and Dalits. The alliance of both has also been with BJP.

In 2024 also, there is speculation that both will join the NDA. However, the screw is stuck regarding the seat.