Is Trump involved in a scam like Harshad Mehta? Big earnings from insider trading before the statement

Year 1992… You all must remember India’s biggest financial scam. When Harshad Mehta of Gujarat shook the banking system and stock market and committed a scam of about Rs 5 thousand crores through insider trading. American President sprinkled some similar allegations donald trump But are also falling. Just before Trump’s big announcements, surprising trading activities are being seen in the stock market, oil futures and prediction markets. What is insider trading and what is Trump’s case? Know in the explainer…

Question 1: What is insider trading and why is it considered illegal?

answer: Insider trading means trading in stocks, futures, options or other securities using confidential and non-public information that is not available to the general public. For example, an important government announcement such as a war decision or tariff policy is known in advance and bets are placed on that basis. This is illegal because it benefits those with inside information while ordinary investors suffer losses. This creates unfairness in the market and breaks the confidence of investors.

If we look at the case of Trump, sometimes there is a sudden surge in trading just before his statements become public. Experts consider this to be a sign of illegal insider trading, that is, some special people already know secret information, which the common man does not have. From this they earn crores and billions of rupees and the common man suffers loss.

Question 2: What major examples of Trump and insider trading have come to light?

answer: According to the BBC report, the trading pattern before Trump’s announcement is clearly visible. There are 5 big examples of this:

1. March 9, 2026: ‘The war is almost completely over’ on Iran war
Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict with Iran is almost over. The public became aware of this at 19:16 GMT, when the reporter posted on X, but bets on oil futures had increased 47 minutes earlier, at 18:29 GMT. As a result, oil prices fell by 25%. Traders who did short selling made profits worth millions of dollars.

2. March 23, 2026: ‘Complete and final solution’ with Tehran
Trump posted on Truth Social that the hostilities between Washington and Tehran have been completely resolved. The post happened at 11:04 GMT, but heavy bets on oil had taken place 14 minutes earlier (10:48-10:50 GMT). As a result, US oil prices fell 11%. According to some reports, at this time trades worth about 580 million dollars (about Rs 4.66 thousand crore) were made, due to which some traders made huge profits.

3. 28 February 2026: Bet of American attack on Iran
Blockchain analysis site BubbleMaps revealed that 6 new accounts were suddenly created in February. All of them voted heavily in favor of attacking Iran. When Trump confirmed the attack, these accounts earned a total of $1.2 million. Five accounts were never activated after this.

4. January 3, 2026: Case of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
A new account named ‘BurdenSome-Mix’ was created in December 2025 on an online prediction market like Polymarket. From December 30 to January 2, it spent $32,500 on Maduro’s resignation. Maduro was removed from office on January 3. The account won $4.36 lakh and immediately changed its username and became inactive.

5. April 2-9, 2025: (Liberation Day Tariffs and 90-day ceasefire)
Trump announced heavy tariffs on imports from around the world on April 2, 2025, causing stock markets to fall, but a week later, on April 9, he announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Due to this announcement, the S&P 500 index jumped 9.5%, which was the biggest gain since the Second World War. Trading data shows that after 18:00 BST, huge bets were suddenly placed when the stock market went up and Trump’s announcement came at 18:18 BST. Due to this surge, some traders made a profit of about 20 million dollars.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman alleged in March 2026 that Trump’s cronies earned crores by taking advantage of inside information in the crude oil market.

Question 3: So is Trump really the mastermind of insider trading?

answer: Some analysts consider this a clear sign of insider trading because the matching of timed trading and confidential information seems suspicious, but others say that traders have now understood Trump’s unpredictable style, so they take positions in advance. Nevertheless, the pattern has been repeated so much that the demand for investigation has increased.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has started an investigation into oil futures trades ahead of the March 2026 Iran policy shift (March 23 and April 7). The trades done on CME Group and ICE platforms are being investigated. Some senior Democratic lawmakers wrote a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) demanding an investigation. The White House had warned staff not to engage in insider trading, but no concrete evidence or arrests have been made so far.

Question 4: What is its impact on common investors and the market?

answer: The biggest impact of insider trading is that equality is being lost in the market. Some select traders receive confidential information before Trump’s announcement, allowing them to place huge bets minutes or hours in advance. Due to this, questions are being raised on the transparency and fairness of the market.

Common people think that the market is already decided. Big players are playing with inside information, while small investors only suffer losses. This puts an end to equality in the market. Such patterns shake the confidence of investors as they feel they do not have a level playing field.

The overall effect on the market is that volatility has increased. The sudden rise and fall in both oil and stocks increases volatility, which also affects the economy. Impact on inflation, oil prices, shares of companies and even the pockets of the common man.

Experts say that even if insider trading is not proven every time, the mere ‘show’ is enough to break the trust of investors. The market has now started looking more risky for small traders, due to which many people have started staying away or become cautious.

Question 5: What can happen next in this case?

answer: No concrete evidence or arrest has been made yet, but the investigation has intensified. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has started an investigation into oil futures trades ahead of the March 2026 Iran policy change. This investigation focuses on trades on the CME Group and ICE platforms, where trades worth millions of dollars took place minutes before.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig clearly said in a congressional committee on April 16, 2026, ‘Whoever commits fraud, manipulation or insider trading, we will find him and apply the full force of the law against him.’ He told that the CFTC has hundreds or thousands of ongoing investigations and insider trading is now their top priority.

Experts predict that legal action will be taken if evidence is found, but Professor Paul Oden of ESSEC Business School says that it is very difficult to prove. If financial authorities cannot find out who is the source of the information, they will not prosecute. Still, the pattern is so clear that hearings in Congress can continue and new rules and regulations can be made. If anything wrong is found in the investigation, political pressure will increase on the Trump administration.