JD Vance will become US President in 2028! How everything hinged on the Iran deal, 5 reasons for the claim?

One name is prominent in American politics these days – JD Vance. America’s current Vice President Vance is being considered the biggest contender for the 2028 presidential elections. But his entire political future is currently linked to the Iran peace deal. If this deal is successful, Vance can become President in 2028 and if it fails, his career can be ruined. Come, let us understand this entire game in details…

Why should Vance become the face of Iran deal?

A peace agreement was signed between America and Iran on Wednesday night (17 June 2026). Under this, Iran will have to limit its nuclear program and in return it will get economic relief. Vance has described this deal as a ‘regional peace agreement’, which will extend beyond Iran to Gulf countries, Israel and Lebanon.

Vance has told the big points of this deal:

1. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons
2. keeping the strait of hormuz open

According to the White House, Vance is the most trusted member of President Trump’s national security team. He played a key role in back-channel talks along with Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance defended the deal everywhere, from White House press briefings to interviews with The New York Times.

Why did Trump make Vance a ‘scapegoat’?

The most interesting question is whether Trump has made Vance the ‘fall guy’ (scapegoat) of this deal?

A day earlier, Trump had joked, “If it doesn’t work, I’ll blame JD.” When a reporter asked Vance whether Trump had made him a scapegoat, Vance said, ‘I think the president was joking.’

But many Republican strategists did not find it funny. “Trump throwing JD under the bus is classic Trump,” said one longtime Republican operative. Another Republican strategist, Matt Mackowiak, said, ‘The President wants to be in the limelight, so he has done this here. This seems to be a deliberate decision.

That is, Trump has deliberately made Vance the face of this deal, so that if the deal fails then all the blame falls on Vance and if it is successful then Trump himself takes the credit.

What is Vance’s position in the 2028 race?

Vance is considered the strongest contender in the 2028 Republican primary. According to the Center Square Voters’ Voice poll, 36% of Republicans and right-wing independent voters approve of Vance. Vance received 61% of the vote in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll. Vance is leading in the Real Clear Politics average with 45%.

Foreign Minister Marco Rubio has emerged as his biggest competitor. In the May 2026 poll of Emerson College, both are tied at 35-35%. According to the Forbes report, Trump himself is promoting the conflict between Vance and Rubio. They’re asking billionaires who they prefer.

The basis of support for both is also different. Rubio is likely to get the support of Wall Street and establishment donors, while Vance has deep ties to Silicon Valley. Elon Musk has already indicated that he may support Vance.

Vance has also recently launched the book ‘Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith’, which is the story of converting from atheism to Catholicism. Experts say that this book is to bring religious and conservative voters along with them.

What will happen if the deal is successful?

If the Iran deal is successful and Iran limits its nuclear program, Vance will emerge as the biggest hero. He would be able to present himself as a foreign policy leader who would have avoided a major war in the Middle East.

Vance’s involvement in the deal will prove him to be Trump’s ‘true heir’. This can become the biggest campaign weapon for them in the 2028 elections.

What happens if the deal fails?

If this deal fails, Vance’s career could be badly ruined. Because:

• If the deal fails, the entire blame will fall squarely on them.
• There is already a deep divide in the Republican Party. Some people are against war, while others are against any agreement with Iran. Vance will find it difficult to convince both these groups.
• Vance’s competitor Marco Rubio has stayed away from this entire matter. If the deal fails, Rubio will directly benefit.

According to CNN’s report, ‘If the deal fails miserably, Vance’s political hopes will be dealt a major blow.’

Finally, will Vance run in 2028?

Vance has not yet clearly announced that he will contest elections in 2028. He has said that he will discuss this with his wife Usha Vance after the 2026 midterm elections. He said in an interview with CBS Sunday Morning, ‘I don’t take decisions unless I have to.’ He also said that if he contests the elections, Trump will undoubtedly support him.

Trump has not yet declared anyone as his successor. They are presenting both Vance and Rubio as possible candidates.