In 4 years, 8 parties left together, 2 threatened…, why is the NDA clan disintegrating?

In Tamil Nadu, Dushyant Chautala’s party has joined hands with JJP in Haryana amid tension in relations with AIADMK. Like AIADMK, JJP has also threatened to break the alliance. It is also being said in the political corridors that JJP and BJP will part ways soon. BJP in-charge Biplav Dev has also claimed to run the government on his own.

After the 2019 assembly elections, there was an alliance between JJP and BJP. Recently, when a letter was issued by the NDA in the inauguration of the new Parliament, it was signed by Dushyant Chautala along with JP Nadda.

If the BJP-JJP alliance breaks, then the difficulties of the Manohar Lal Khattar government may increase in the politics of Haryana. Not only this, JJP will be the ninth political party in the last 4 years, which will go out of the NDA alliance.

After 2019, many new and old allies of NDA have left BJP. There are also major parties like Shiv Sena, JDU and Shiromani Akali among them. The disintegration of the NDA between having a government at the Center and the exercise of opposition unity has confused many knots.

In this story, we know in detail about the tangled knots of the National Democratic Alliance i.e. NDA…

What is the political dispute of Haryana?
In the 2019 assembly elections, out of 90 seats in Haryana, BJP won 40, Congress 31, JJP 10, INLD-HLP 1-1 and Independents won 7 seats. The BJP fell far short of the magic figure of 46. In such a situation, BJP made an alliance with JJP.

JJP was also given participation in the government, but for the last few months a dispute has started between the two regarding some issues and seats. 2 months back JJP’s demand for pension was rejected by the Chief Minister of Haryana.

Recently, BJP’s state in-charge Biplav Dev had talked about fielding a BJP candidate in Jind’s Uchana Kalan seat in 2024. In 2019, Deputy CM Dushyant Chautala defeated BJP’s Premlata Singh by 47,000 votes from Uchana Kalan.

JJP has made it clear that there will be no compromise on seats and if BJP makes more statements then alliance can be decided.

JJP is also an attacker after BJP’s claim on Uchana Kalan. Political experts say that the whole game is about the seats in the Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, BJP alone had won 10 seats in Haryana.

If there is a BJP-JJP alliance in the Lok Sabha, then JJP will hardly agree to fight for less than 3 seats. In such a situation, BJP may have to lose its 3 MPs.

What is National Democratic Alliance?
NDA stands for National Democratic Alliance i.e. National Democratic Alliance. In 1996, when the BJP failed to form the government because of the United Front, in 1998 the initiative to form the NDA was taken. JDU’s George Fernandez and BJP’s LK Advani played an important role in forming the NDA.

The constituents of NDA have so far contested 6 Lok Sabha elections together. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the first chairman of NDA. Advani was its chairman from 2004 to 2012. The second important post in NDA is that of the coordinator.

George Fernandez was the first convenor (coordinator) of the NDA. Sharad Yadav was the convenor of NDA at the time of Advani. Presently Amit Shah is the chairman of NDA, but the post of convenor is vacant.

How much has the NDA structure changed in 25 years?
In 1998, the BJP returned to power at the Center by forming the NDA. However, the government fell after 13 months. BJP further strengthened the NDA and formed the NDA government in 1999 with the cooperation of 24 parties.

At that time, a common minimum program was made in the NDA regarding the issues. Along with this, a meeting of constituents of NDA was called on any major issues. There were 24 parties in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government.

On the basis of representation in power, the allies were given a share in power. However, in 2004, the NDA clan disintegrated and Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government went. After this BJP remained out of power for 10 years.

Even in 2014, BJP entered the electoral fray by forming NDA, but after BJP got full majority, turmoil started in NDA parties. Many parties also accused the accused of neglecting themselves.

Old parties like Shiv Sena and JDU also accused them of weakening themselves. After 2019, there was a stampede in the NDA. Barring the PMK, not a single party that was an ally in 1998 is now a part of the NDA.

However, compared to 1998, the base of NDA has definitely increased. BJP itself is in power in 10 states. The government is running with cooperation in 6 states.

After 2019, there was a split within the NDA due to two reasons.

1. Parties like Shiv Sena, JDU, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha and Jana Sena alleged that a conspiracy was being hatched to weaken it. These parties alleged that BJP plays behind the scenes to increase its base in the state.

Not only this, the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha also accused the BJP of betraying the people. That is, the first major reason is unreliability.

2. The Shiromani Akali Dal and the National Democratic Party left the government against the Agriculture Bill. These parties said that the allies were not discussed before making the bill. That is, BJP ignored the Common Minimum Program on big issues.

SAD and RALP have been considered to have mass base among the farmers. However, later the Modi government bowed down to the movement and this law was withdrawn.

Why is the NDA clan disintegrating?No proper system of coordination- Ever since the formation of the Modi government, there has been a demand to form a coordination committee in the NDA, but it has not been successful even after 9 years. The most important post of the alliance coordinator is still vacant.

KC Tyagi is an advisor to Janata Dal United and has played a major role in NDA formation. While being in the NDA alliance, Tyagi has demanded the formation of a coordination committee. Tyagi considers this a major reason behind the disintegration of the NDA.

During the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, George Fernandes used to consult leaders on all issues. Any dispute was resolved immediately by calling a meeting, but no such scene has been seen within the NDA in recent years.

Strength of seats with BJP- After 2014, the BJP got absolute majority in the 2019 elections as well, after which the coalition politics got weakened. BJP gave token participation in exchange for representation of allies in the government.

This angered many allies. JDU even refused to join the government. Not only this, the allies did not get preference even in the common minimum program and issues. Many parties pulled out of the alliance citing this as the reason.

How many seats will be affected due to the weakening of NDA?
On the one hand, the Congress and many regional parties are engaged in the exercise of alliance with the opposition parties, while on the other hand, the NDA is continuously disintegrating. In such a situation, the question is whether it will affect the Lok Sabha seats? If yes then how many seats?

In fact, due to being weak, the BJP had taken the initiative to form alliances in states like Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Haryana and Tamil Nadu. There are about 150 Lok Sabha seats in these states. In the event of a break-up of the alliance, it can have an impact on almost the same number of seats.

However, BJP has strengthened its position in Maharashtra, Assam and Haryana. In such a situation, everything will be decided by the vote percentage of the elections in these three states.