Why there is speculation that the Lok Sabha elections will be held earlier, know the 3 factors behind Nitish Kumar’s claim

When will the election happen, is it okay? Lok Sabha elections can be held even before the fixed time… This video of Nitish Kumar’s conversation with officials in the presence of Tejashwi Yadav is becoming very viral. Nitish is instructing the officers to work quickly.

This statement of Nitish has come to the fore when he is trying to form an opposition unity against the BJP government. In May 2019, the BJP alliance returned to power at the Center for the second consecutive time by winning more than 350 seats.

In 1971 and 1984, premature Lok Sabha elections were held in the country. The ruling party got a bumper victory in both the elections. In such a situation, only one question is being asked in the political corridors from Delhi to Patna, whether the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be held ahead of time?

First 2 political statements…

1. Due to the defeat in Karnataka, the BJP may announce the Lok Sabha elections earlier. The influence of BJP is decreasing across the country.
(MK Stalin, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu)

2. There is no plan to hold early elections. By the way, it is very good to see that Nitish Kumar has become a prophet.
(Giriraj Singh, Union Minister)

Why there is speculation about early elections, 3 factors

1. Assembly elections in 4 states, trying to achieve this- The most important factor behind holding the Lok Sabha elections ahead of time is considered to be the assembly elections. Before the Lok Sabha, assembly elections are to be held in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana.

BJP is preparing to form the government in 3 out of 4 states, while the challenge is to save power in MP. The local leadership of BJP is very weak in all the four states. Recently, the organiser, the mouthpiece of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, has also given instructions regarding local leadership.

If we talk about Madhya Pradesh, BJP was defeated here in 2018, but after the rebellion of Jyotiraditya Scindia from Congress, it again came to the government. The BJP has 130 MLAs in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, but it is not easy for the party to return to power this time.

The factionalism within the BJP was recently making headlines. Two ministers of the government, Gopal Bhargava and Govind Rajput, had opened a front against one minister, Bhupendra Singh. According to Congress leader Digvijay Singh, 3 factions are still active in BJP. 1. Shivraj faction 2. Maharaj (Scindia) faction and 3. Angry faction.

On the other hand Congress is united this time and is claiming to win 150 seats. Congress is also adopting the strategy of homecoming of leaders and alliance. Tribal organizations are also trying to help Jayas and Gangopas. Political experts say that the Congress is in a stronger position than the BJP.

There is a Congress government in Rajasthan and it is excited to return to power with the help of custom, but the only satrap of the state BJP, Vasundhara Raje, is on the sidelines. BJP has not given Raje any major responsibility in the state till now. The tussle with the BJP high command is believed to be the reason behind this.

There is huge factionalism in Rajasthan Congress too, but the party is continuously claiming to come back victorious. In the last election, Congress had won 101 seats. At present the party has 108 MLAs, while more than 10 independents have given their support.

In Chhattisgarh too, BJP is divided into many camps. Former Chief Minister Raman Singh along with his entire family is sideline. In the beginning of the year, the BJP had made several changes to prevent factionalism, but all proved to be a fallacy.

Recently, senior tribal leader Nandkumar Sai has left the party. Sai was associated with the BJP in Chhattisgarh since its inception. According to political experts, the Congress has a stronger position in Chhattisgarh than the BJP.

Recently, C-Voter had conducted a survey regarding the face within BJP. In Rajasthan, 51 percent people had said to contest elections by projecting the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 26 percent people were in favor of Vasundhara.

Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, 37 percent people said that if the election is contested by projecting Modi’s face, then BJP can get benefit. 24 percent people were in favor of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and 20 percent people were in favor of Jyotiraditya Scindia.

2. One election in a year on the lines of One Nation-One Election- This is also believed to be the reason behind holding premature elections in political corridors. BJP and the Prime Minister himself Narendra Modi Have advocated One Nation-One Election.

Assembly elections are to be held in 9 states in the end of 2023 and in 2024. In such a situation, there is a discussion that on the lines of One Nation-One Election, one election can be held in a year, so that the elections of all the states can be dealt with simultaneously.

Elections are to be held in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Odisha and Arunachal Pradesh in 2024. There is a BJP coalition government in Arunachal, Haryana and Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, even the chair of 16 MLAs including the Chief Minister is in danger.

In such a situation, these crises can also be dealt with by holding elections ahead of time. In Haryana too, everything is not going well in the BJP and the alliance and the reason for this is the low number of seats for the BJP.

3. Opposition unity is not yet in a strong position- Against BJP, 15 parties including Congress, DMK, CPM are engaged in the exercise of creating opposition unity. This month, the first meeting of the opposition parties is in Patna. Right now the screw is stuck on many issues including seat sharing.

This factor is also being considered important behind holding elections ahead of time. The opposition is working on a possible strategy to corner the government on two issues, the first of which is the caste census. This issue has not yet created an undercurrent in the entire country.

BJP knows that if Mandal’s fight breaks out in the verses of Kamandal, then it can be harmed. Nitish Kumar has also told this the main reason behind holding elections. According to Nitish, fearing the movement of opposition unity, BJP can conduct elections first.

Is early election possible, legal angle?
Yes, 3 times premature elections have been held in the country. First time in 1971, second time in 1984 and third time in 2004. Lok Sabha or Vidhansabha has to be dissolved to hold elections ahead of time. The provision for dissolution of the Lok Sabha is in Article 85(2)(b) of the Constitution.

The President has the power to dissolve the Lok Sabha. Similarly, in Article 174(2)(b), the governor has the right to dissolve the assembly. At both the places, the recommendation to dissolve the government has to be sent to the President/Governor.

The notice of dissolution of the House is given to the Election Commission. After this, the commission issues the notification of the election.