Israel Iran Conflict Impact on India: West Asia is once again in the news due to tension, violence and failing diplomacy. This recent tension, which started with pager attacks, has now reached the doorstep of Iran. After the death of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, Iran fired about 200 missiles on the night of October 1, 2024. After this, Israel has now vowed to take retaliatory action. India’s concerns have increased amid the attacks by Israel and Iran.
What are the concerns for India?
India has good relations with Israel while India has cultural relations with Iran. If the flames of war rise once again in West Asia, it will affect India also. The tension between Israel and Iran is a matter of concern not only for West Asia but for the entire world.
This tension can also have a direct impact on India, especially from the economic, diplomatic and security point of view. The Indian Foreign Ministry has issued a travel advisory for Indian citizens regarding Iran. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal On behalf of the Government of India, has said, “We are closely monitoring the security situation in this area.” In a statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs, it has been written that India is concerned about the recent developments in West Asia.
On which fronts will India be affected?
There is a possibility of India’s interests being crushed in the conflicts between Iran and Israel. In this, crude oil and diplomatic challenges are at the top. ABP News has talked to Robindra Sachdev, foreign affairs expert and president of think tank Imagine India, about the impact of a possible war between Israel and Iran on India.
Robindra Sachdev says, if Iran and Israel collide with each other, there will be instability in the prices of crude oil. This will be an uncomfortable situation for India on the economic front. The increasing tension between Iran and Israel will have a direct impact on India’s crude oil imports. Oil exports from West Asia are likely to be affected, due to which crude oil prices will fluctuate. India’s import bill may increase, which will increase pressure on the domestic market and inflation may also increase.”
What about Indian workers working in West Asia?
According to the data of the Indian Foreign Ministry, about 90 lakh Indians are living in United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. In which more than 35 lakh Indians live in UAE. At the same time, about 25 lakh Indians are living in Saudi Arabia, 9 lakh in Kuwait, 8 lakh in Qatar, about 6.5 lakh in Oman and more than three lakh in Bahrain. If we talk about Iran, this number is 10 thousand and in Israel it is 20 thousand. Indians living here send a good amount of money to India from there. With this money, India’s foreign exchange reserves remain strong.
Robindra Sachdev says, security and remittance of foreign workers is also a topic. Millions of Indians work in West Asia. If this sector becomes unstable, both their security and employment may be at risk. Some Indian workers may have to return to the country, which may lead to a reduction in remittances (money sent from abroad) coming to India. A large portion of Indian remittances come from this sector, which contributes significantly to India’s economy.”
Future of Chabahar Port
Chabahar Port has special strategic importance between India and Iran. This port not only gives India access to Central Asia but is also considered an alternative to Gwadar Port of Pakistan and China. If instability increases in Iran, India’s economic and strategic interests at this port may be affected.
Foreign affairs expert Robindra says, “Impact on international trade can also make India’s situation uncomfortable. Indian exports and imports through maritime trade routes, especially through the Suez Canal, can be affected. Due to this, the price of Indian goods will be affected. Shipping costs may increase and exports may become expensive. This is also a challenge for maintaining the balance between Iran and Israel. Because India has good relations with both the countries, on the one hand, India has an important partnership with Iran in the Chabahar Port and on the other hand, India has a strong defense and technological partnership with one of the parties in this conflict. “support could create a diplomatic crisis for India.”
India is a big importer of defense equipment from Israel. If Israel gets more entangled in this tension, it may delay the supply of defense material to India. Due to Israel giving priority to internal needs, it is possible that India may face difficulty in supplying defense products.
regional geopolitical impact
Possible benefit of Pakistan: During this tension, Pakistan may try to strengthen its position by taking advantage of its relations with America and Israel. Pakistan has a long border with Iran and can use it for its geopolitical advantage. Apart from this, Pakistan may try to take advantage of this situation to get strategic support from America and Israel, which may affect the security situation of South Asia.
Although this tension presents many challenges for India, it also presents some opportunities. Just as India maintained the balance in the Russia-Ukraine war, this situation can give India an opportunity to play the role of a mediator. Indian foreign policy has long followed the policy of non-alignment and mediation, and even in this crisis India can use its diplomatic skills. Israel-Iran tension can have multidimensional impact on India.
From the economic point of view, it will affect crude oil prices, trade and remittances, while at the diplomatic level, India may have to face the difficult challenge of maintaining balance. Along with this, security and regional geopolitics will also become important for India.
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